It’s all but expected Republicans will take control of the U.S. Senate next year given Democrats’ tough path to keep its slim majority.
But is a new ratings change for a Pennsylvania Senate race a warning for Kamala Harris’ campaign and a sign Donald Trump could carry the state and win a second term?
The non-partisan Cook Political Report changed its Senate rating from “lean Democratic” to “toss up” after “both Republican and Democratic internal polls show this is now a margin-of-error race.” Incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey holds a slight edge, but businessman David McCormick has made gains “in the western part of the state, particularly in and around Allegheny County/Pittsburgh.”
More from Cook: “Republicans say the undecided Senate voters skew non-college and are more likely to be swayed on inflation, though they are lower-propensity voters. As further evidence of how the tight presidential contest is impacting the Senate race, Republicans point out that Casey’s latest ad touts he “sid[ed] with Trump to end NAFTA,” suggesting that Casey’s hold on his blue-collar base may be slipping. McCormick and GOP groups are slamming Casey on immigration and taxes.”
“If Bob Casey is really in a squeaker, that doesn’t bode well for Harris in PA. Casey has historically run ahead of his party’s presidential nominee.” Jonathan Tamari, veteran national and Pennsylvania reporter, posted to X.
Trump beat Hillary Clinton by more than 40,000 votes in Pennsylvania on his way to winning the presidency in 2016. But Joe Biden, a Scranton native, beat Trump by about 80,000 votes in the state four years ago.
Both sides believe the race for Pennsylvania could be even closer this time.
Pennsylvania and its 19 electoral votes, the most of any swing state, have generated the most attention by far from the Democratic and Republican presidential campaigns.
